Polymarket Records Strongest Ever Month As Election Season Heats Up

Polymarket, a crypto-native prediction market platform, posted its strongest month on record during May amid rampant election forecasting.

Data from Dune Analytics shows punters placing more than $63 million worth of bets via the platform during the month of May, beating out its previous record from January by 15%.

The number of active traders on the platform also skyrocketed, with nearly 13,600 users wagering on predictions last month. That equates to a month-over-month increase of 405%, also beating out December 2021’s previous all-time high of 5,711 by 138%.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is already proving to be driving big business for Polymarket. The platform’s presidential winner market has attracted $147.4 million worth of prediction bets so far.

For comparison, the same market on Betfair, the leading centralized betting exchange, has garnered nearly $35.2 million in action so far.

Markets for the Democratic party nominee, Republican party nominee, and popular vote winner have also attracted $31.1 million, $29.7 million, and $26.5 million worth of wagers respectively.

Joey Krug, a partner at Founders Fund, a venture capital firm co-founded by Peter Thiel that led Polymarket’s recent $45 million funding round, said he believes it is only a matter of time before Polymarket’s monthly volume exceeds $100 million.

“The criteria I always considered strong product market fit for crypto-based prediction markets was $10mm in volume a week,” Krug said. “If you can get there, there’s a path to $100mm and onwards. I think it’ll heat up further as we get into election season.”

Investment rounds

Shayne Coplan, the CEO of Polymarket, announced the company’s $45 million Series B round on May 14, noting that the blockchain-focused VCs ParaFi and Dragonfly, and Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s chief scientist, were among the investors participating in the round.

Coplan also revealed a previously undisclosed $25 million Series A round led by VCs Polychain Capital and General Catalyst on the same day.

“People understand what's going on in the world better because Polymarket exists,” Coplan said. “Enough of the talking heads and news-by-algorithm. We're in a misinformation pandemic, and Polymarket presents a novel information format that is driven by financial incentives for truth, rather than engagement baiting.”